A global sustainable food system could lift 300 million people out of undernourishment, Deloitte reports

Key highlights:

Climate action to limit warming to below 2° C while sustainably transforming the global food system could see global economic growth gains of $US121 trillion by 2070.
This transformation could also make significant progress toward enhancing food security by lowering global food prices by 16%.
Conversely, inaction on climate change could cost the global economy US$190 trillion as a result of agricultural decline, reduced labor productivity, and damage to capital and land.

NEW YORK, Nov. 18, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Released today during COP29, Deloitte’s new report, Turning point: feeding the world sustainably quantifies the potential social and economic benefits resulting from sustainably transforming global food production. Around 730 million people—nearly 10% of the global population—are presently undernourished. The global challenge is three-fold: addressing the needs of a growing population, lifting more people out of the undernourishment cycle, and decarbonizing the agricultural sector and food system at the same time.

To feed the world sustainably by 2070 would require limiting warming to below 2° C while producing 40% more calories to feed a projected global population of around 10 billion people. According to the report, a comprehensive and sustainable transformation of the global food system could result in meeting the minimum nutritional needs of an additional 1.6 billion people by 2070. The modeling suggests that almost one in five of the extra calories produced would be supplied in regions of the world where hunger is most prevalent and could support an additional 300 million otherwise undernourished people. Over the same period, emissions from the global food system would fall by around two-thirds, aiding the global path to net zero. These achievements could also increase global gross domestic product (GDP) by US$121 trillion in the same time period.

Deloitte’s food systems research further underscores the risks of inaction, estimating that without intervention, unchecked climate change could cost the global economy US$190 trillion between 2025 and 2070. Due to this inaction, anticipated damages from climate change could reduce the value of primary food production industries (such as crops, livestock, dairy, and fisheries) by US$13 trillion in present value terms. These impacts could reverberate through the wider food system, with food manufacturing and food services sectors anticipated to fall in value by an estimated US$12 trillion over this period as well.

“COP29 is a pivotal moment for global leaders to come together to weigh the significant costs of inaction on climate change, which could have tremendous impacts for both human well-being and the global economy,” says Jennifer Steinmann, Deloitte Global Sustainability Business leader. “Investing in and supporting sustainable food systems has the potential to lift hundreds of millions of people out of malnourishment, conserve resources, and mitigate climate change. This is a critical opportunity to not only limit the adverse impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity, but also boost the global economy across industries at the same time.”

The analysis leverages Deloitte’s D.Climate model to assess both the individual and collective viability of five proposed solutions—ranging from leveraging technological improvements and accelerated innovation to improve agricultural production, to reducing global emissions. To complement the economic modeling, the report also spotlights case studies that illustrate how some of these sustainable solutions are already effectively improving the global food supply.

Risks and rewards trend highest for lower-income communities

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), global food production has historically outpaced increasing demand, yet the last decade has seen a troubling shift in which rates of malnourishment in lower-income regions increased from 22% to 28% and real food prices rose by almost 20%. With a growing global population, these challenges are expected to increase. Today, the FAO estimates that approximately 730 million people around the globe are undernourished, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates an additional 80 million people are at risk of hunger due to global warming. Limiting this warming is crucial for enabling a sustainable food supply over the long term.

To that end, Deloitte’s analysis shows that transitioning to sustainable food systems could increase global food production by 9%, equivalent to a US$22 trillion increase in the output of food systems by 2070. This increased food production could feed the expected global population of almost 10 billion people and decrease food prices by 16%, making healthier diets more accessible and affordable.

Lower-income countries could see the greatest gains, including a 12% boost in GDP and the largest increase in food consumption per capita, with an average increase in consumption in these countries of as many as 626 calories per person per day in 2070. What’s more, the concentration of these additional calories produced globally is expected to increase over time in areas with significant populations facing hunger, including Sub-Saharan Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and South America. Overall, vulnerable economies could benefit from efforts to reduce emissions through structural adjustments that would integrate new, innovative, and climate-smart agricultural practices and by avoiding potential climate damage.

“The world is facing a burgeoning ‘polycrisis’ of our global food system, given that the combination of climate change, biodiversity loss, a strain on finite resources, and smaller harvests significantly hinders our ability to feed the world sustainably,” says Randy Jagt, Deloitte Global Future of Food leader and co-author of the report. “Transforming our global food system to focus on sustainability will not only address each of these challenges but will significantly benefit populations already disproportionately impacted by food insecurity and climate change, supporting the communities that need it most.”

The turning point: Committing to a sustainable and equitable future

Feeding the world sustainably in the long term will require a system-level transformation. Successful strategies should address the inequities in food consumption, promote more sustainable production that can withstand environmental pressures, and evolve policy frameworks in the shift to net-zero.

The report offers five possible solutions to feed a growing population sustainably:

Accelerate innovation, technology, and productivity improvements at a faster rate than what has been achieved in the past.
Invest in protecting, restoring, and improving natural capital, such as land, soil, water, vegetation, wildlife, and ecosystem services as a means to improve food production and food security.
Reduce global emissions and thereby limit climate change and the damages it causes.
Support and encourage more sustainable consumer-led choices and diets.
Enhance circularity to help address and limit food waste, use by-products of food production, avoid the exhaustion of critical resources, keep materials in circulation, and enhance efficiency.

“The way we have historically increased food production is no longer viable. Sticking to the status quo will continue to exacerbate hunger and drive up food prices, which is not an option,” says Dr. Pradeep Philip, partner, Deloitte Australia and co-author of the report. “Feeding the world sustainably requires large-scale, fundamental change. Across every part of the global economy, we must align our goals and objectives to transform our food systems, whether through investment in agricultural research and development, protection of our land, water, and ecosystems, or continued decarbonization efforts.”

To read the full report and learn more about strategies for reforming the global food system, please visit www.deloitte.com/foodsustainability.

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