Investors are closely tracking Fed meeting insights today as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concludes its two-day session. All eyes are on whether interest rates will be left unchanged, with the spotlight on the updated dot plot showing projections for growth, unemployment, and interest rates. Commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be analyzed for future policy direction.
Stocks Edge Higher as Bonds Weaken
Broad indices are modestly higher, supported by softer bond yields. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield dropped two basis points to 4.36% after weaker housing data, reflecting cautious investor positioning ahead of the FOMC decision. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 245,000—meeting expectations and contributing to the flattening yield curve.
Housing Data Highlights Economic Slowdown
May housing starts plunged 9.8% month-over-month to 1.256 million, marking a five‑year low. Building permits also declined 2.0% to 1.393 million, surprising markets that had anticipated stability. These figures offer key Fed meeting insights, emphasizing a slowdown in key economic sectors and reinforcing expectations that the Fed may remain dovish.
Geopolitical Tensions Cap Market Gains
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are restraining stock market upside. Hostilities between Israel and Iran have persisted into a sixth day. U.S. President Donald Trump—teams as of June 17, 2025—has reportedly discussed possible U.S. engagement, though no shipping disruptions have occurred in the Strait of Hormuz yet. However, disruptions in navigational signals from Iranian ports have already led to a collision between two tankers near the vital waterway.
Mortgage Market Reacts to Rate Expectations
MBA mortgage applications slid 2.6% for the week ending June 13. Purchase applications were down 3.0% and refinancing activity dropped 2.1%. The average 30‑year fixed mortgage rate also eased nine basis points to 6.84%, offering relief to homebuyers in the wake of economic cooling and dovish Fed commentary.
Global Markets Show Mixed Signals
International markets are sending mixed signals ahead of the FOMC outcome. The Euro Stoxx 50 dropped to a three‑and‑a‑half‑week low, while the Shanghai Composite ticked up 0.04%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 0.90%, reaching a near four‑month high—highlighting divergent regional responses to global data and central bank signals.
Moving Interest Rates & Bond Yields
September 10‑year Treasuries gained four ticks today. The benchmark yield eased two basis points to 4.365%, partly driven by dovish U.S. housing data and spillover support from European bonds. German 10‑year bund yields fell 1.4 bp to 2.521%, while U.K. gilts declined 2.2 bp to 4.529%—reflecting growing expectations of global monetary easing. The 10‑year breakeven inflation rate climbed to a two‑week high of 2.336%, highlighting persistent inflation concerns.
Sector Spotlight: Financials and Tech Lead
Within the S&P 500, Nucor (NYSE:NUE) surged over 5% after raising its Q2 EPS forecast to $2.55–$2.65, exceeding estimates. Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) jumped 6% after boosting its data‑center TAM outlook. JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) rose 1% amid speculation regulators will ease capital requirements on bank Treasury operations. Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC) also rallied after Raymond James raised its target to $84. Analog Devices (NASDAQ:ADI) and Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) climbed post-upgrades.
Conversely, pharmaceutical stocks fell over 1% after Bloomberg reported the Trump administration is contemplating direct‑to‑consumer advertising restrictions on drugmakers—impacting Merck & Co (NYSE:MRK), Bristol‑Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY), Eli Lilly (NASDAQ:LLY), Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN), Baxter International (NYSE:BAX), and Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA).
Other notable movements include Bitdeer Technologies (NASDAQ:BTDR) dropping 8% after launching $300 million in convertible notes, Zoetis Inc (NASDAQ:ZTS) falling 3% on a downgrade, and Allstate (NYSE:ALL) dipping after reporting heightened catastrophe losses.
Earnings on Deck & Tariff Risks
Today’s earnings spotlight includes GMS Inc (NYSE:GMS), Korn Ferry (NASDAQ:KFY), LiveOne Inc (NASDAQ:LVO), and Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (NASDAQ:SWBI). Additionally, markets are bracing for potential tariff announcements ahead of the July 9 deadline; President Trump has threatened unilateral tariffs on multiple major U.S. trading partners.
Conclusion: Fed Meeting Insights in Focus
As markets await the FOMC conclusion, Fed meeting insights from Powell’s press conference will likely set the tone. Housing and jobs data have tilted sentiment toward dovish neutrality, while geopolitical and trade risks may temper investment enthusiasm in the near term.
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