In today’s stock market news, all eyes are on Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) ahead of its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings release on May 28. Once again, Nvidia takes center stage as investors try to determine whether the AI chip giant can not only beat expectations — as it usually does — but also reignite its momentum and reclaim its record highs.
Over the last two years, Nvidia has been the face of the AI investing trend, consistently surpassing earnings estimates and setting new revenue records. Yet despite this winning streak, the stock has often sold off after earnings — a sign that Wall Street’s expectations are sky-high and that investors now demand exceptional, not just strong, results.
Analysts Still Love Nvidia — But With Caution
Although Nvidia continues to deliver quarter after quarter, recent earnings have triggered muted market reactions. Last quarter, the company’s beat was narrower than usual, and the stock slipped — reinforcing a now-familiar pattern: strong fundamentals met with lukewarm price action.
This time, analyst upgrades have been relatively quiet ahead of earnings.
- Bank of America raised its price target from $150 to $160.
- UBS trimmed its target from $180 to $175.
- TD Cowen’s Joshua Buchalter reiterated Nvidia as a “top compute pick” but tempered expectations, saying recent earnings “have not been a meaningful positive catalyst.”
- Loop Capital remains bullish, urging investors to buy ahead of earnings.
According to Barchart, 37 of 44 analysts rate the stock as a “Strong Buy”, and the average target price of $166.22 implies a 26.1% upside from current levels. Street-high and low targets range from $220 to $100.
Q1 Expectations: AI Demand Still Strong
Nvidia has guided for Q1 revenue of $43 billion, with gross margins between 70.1% and 71.1% — slightly lower than in recent quarters due to its transition to the new Blackwell chip.
- Consensus revenue estimate: $43.12 billion (+65.7% YoY)
- EPS estimate: $0.82 (+41.4% YoY)
- Q2 revenue guidance estimate: $46 billion (+53% YoY)
These are eye-popping numbers, but they may already be baked into Nvidia’s stock price.
Key Risk: Nvidia’s China Market Is Shrinking Fast
Despite strong global demand, Nvidia faces a major headwind in China. CEO Jensen Huang recently confirmed the company’s market share in China has plunged from 95% to 50% due to U.S. export restrictions. He called the chip curbs a “failure” and singled out Huawei as a rising rival. If Huawei continues to develop competitive AI chips, Nvidia could lose even more ground — not just in China, but potentially across emerging markets.
At the Computex AI trade show, Huang emphasized how Chinese firms like Huawei are rapidly catching up in computing and networking technologies. Given the pace of innovation in China, this is a key long-term risk for Nvidia.
Can Nvidia Reclaim Its Record Highs?
After falling below $90 last month, NVDA stock has rebounded, nearly erasing its year-to-date losses. However, it’s still trading about 13% below its all-time high. So the question is: can Nvidia ride this earnings report to a new peak?
Probably not immediately — but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Expectations are high but realistic this time around. The muted run-up ahead of earnings could cushion downside risk, and if Nvidia delivers not just a beat but a strong guidance, investors may finally reward it.
Key factors to watch post-earnings:
- Margin trajectory during the Blackwell chip transition
- China exposure and any updates on market share
- Capex guidance from AI customers like Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon
- Longer-term AI chip demand outlook
Bottom Line
Nvidia remains a top stock to watch in any investing news roundup. While the upcoming Q1 earnings report may not be a rocket launch, it’s unlikely to disappoint either. Long-term bulls will likely view any weakness as a buying opportunity, especially given the continued growth in AI infrastructure spending.
For investors looking for stock tips, Nvidia remains a cornerstone of the AI megatrend, and its upcoming report is a must-watch for anyone tracking stock market movers this quarter.
Featured Image: Freepik
