The upcoming Netflix earnings preview is drawing close attention from investors as the streaming giant prepares to report its fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 results. Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), headquartered in Los Gatos, California, is one of the world’s largest media and entertainment companies, offering on-demand access to TV series, films, documentaries, and games in nearly 190 countries. With a market capitalization of roughly $400 billion, Netflix’s earnings report, scheduled for after the market closes on Tuesday, Jan. 20, could set the tone for the stock in early 2026.
What Wall Street Expects From Netflix’s Earnings
At the core of this Netflix earnings preview are expectations for solid profit growth. Analysts currently forecast earnings of $0.55 per share for the quarter, representing a 27.9% increase from $0.43 per share in the same period last year. That growth reflects Netflix’s continued focus on pricing discipline, cost control, and monetization improvements across its global subscriber base.
Netflix has delivered mixed results relative to expectations in recent quarters. The company has beaten Wall Street’s bottom-line estimates in three of the last four quarters, though it stumbled in the third quarter. In Q3, Netflix reported earnings per share of $0.59, missing consensus estimates by about 14.5%. That miss has made investors more cautious heading into the upcoming release, even as long-term growth expectations remain intact.
Full-Year Outlook and Long-Term Growth
Looking beyond the quarter, the Netflix earnings preview also highlights strong full-year and forward projections. For fiscal 2025, which ends in December, analysts expect Netflix to post earnings of $2.53 per share, up 27.8% from $1.98 in fiscal 2024. Growth is expected to continue into fiscal 2026, with EPS projected to rise another 26.9% year over year to $3.21.
These forecasts suggest that Netflix’s strategy of combining subscription revenue with advertising-supported tiers is gaining traction. While subscriber growth is maturing in some developed markets, incremental pricing power and ad revenue are increasingly important drivers of profitability.
Stock Performance Versus the Market
Despite solid earnings growth expectations, Netflix stock performance has been relatively muted. Over the past 52 weeks, shares of Netflix are up about 4.6%. That lags the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX), which gained roughly 16.5% over the same period, as well as the Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLC), which rose nearly 19.6%.
This underperformance is a key element of the current Netflix earnings preview. It suggests that much of the market remains skeptical about Netflix’s ability to consistently outperform peers in a crowded and capital-intensive streaming landscape. Investors appear to be waiting for clearer proof that earnings growth can accelerate without major strategic missteps.
Acquisition Concerns Weigh on Sentiment
One of the biggest recent headwinds for Netflix came in early December, when shares dropped 3.4% following news of a proposed $82.7 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:WBD) film and television studios, including HBO. The potential deal raised immediate red flags across Wall Street, with critics arguing that the price tag was excessive and execution risks were high.
Several analysts reacted swiftly. Rosenblatt downgraded Netflix to “Neutral” from “Buy,” while Huber Research cut the stock to “Sell,” calling the acquisition “very risky.” These reactions underscore why the upcoming earnings call will be closely scrutinized for management commentary around capital allocation, mergers, and balance sheet discipline.
Analyst Ratings and Price Targets
Even with these concerns, Wall Street remains moderately optimistic overall. According to consensus data, Netflix currently carries a “Moderate Buy” rating. Among 43 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it as “Strong Buy,” three as “Moderate Buy,” 13 recommend “Hold,” and two have “Strong Sell” ratings.
The average price target for Netflix stands at $128.99, implying potential upside of about 36.7% from current levels. That gap suggests analysts believe the market may be undervaluing Netflix’s long-term earnings power, provided management avoids costly strategic mistakes.
Bottom Line Ahead of Earnings
This Netflix earnings preview points to a pivotal moment for the stock. On one hand, strong EPS growth expectations and improving monetization trends support a bullish long-term thesis. On the other, recent acquisition concerns and relative underperformance versus the broader market have tempered enthusiasm.
For investors, the upcoming earnings report will be less about backward-looking results and more about guidance, capital allocation, and strategic clarity. If Netflix can reassure the market on these fronts, the stock could regain momentum. If not, volatility may persist even in the face of solid earnings growth.
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