The upcoming Costco earnings preview has investors paying close attention as Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ) prepares to release its fiscal second-quarter 2026 results. With a market capitalization of approximately $433 billion, the Issaquah, Washington-based retailer remains a dominant force in the membership-based warehouse sector.
Costco operates large-format stores offering a wide mix of branded and private-label products, and its business model continues to benefit from strong customer loyalty, rising membership fees, and steady global expansion. As earnings season approaches, expectations are building around whether the company can extend its track record of consistent performance.
Earnings Expectations for Q2 2026
Analysts covering Costco anticipate earnings of $4.50 per share for fiscal Q2 2026. If achieved, this would represent an 11.9% increase from the $4.02 per share reported during the same quarter last year. The company has exceeded Wall Street’s earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters, underscoring its ability to manage costs while maintaining sales momentum.
In the previous quarter, Costco reported earnings of $4.34 per share, beating consensus estimates by nearly 2%. That performance reinforced confidence in management’s execution, particularly in balancing pricing discipline with operational efficiency. This consistency is a key reason the Costco earnings preview remains closely followed by long-term investors.
Full-Year Profit Outlook Remains Solid
Looking beyond the current quarter, analysts project Costco to deliver earnings of $20.09 per share for fiscal 2026, which ends in August. That figure would mark an 11.7% year-over-year increase compared to fiscal 2025 earnings of $17.99 per share. Growth is expected to continue into fiscal 2027, with EPS forecast to rise another 9.3% to $21.95.
This steady earnings trajectory reflects Costco’s resilient business model, supported by recurring membership revenue and strong purchasing power. Even in periods of economic uncertainty, the company has historically benefited from consumers seeking value-driven shopping options.
Stock Performance Versus the Market
Despite solid fundamentals, Costco’s stock performance over the past year has been relatively modest. Shares have gained about 3.3% over the last 52 weeks, trailing the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX), which returned roughly 13.6% during the same period. Costco has also underperformed the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA), which rose approximately 6.5%.
This lagging performance suggests that much of Costco’s stability may already be priced into the stock, making upcoming earnings results especially important for near-term direction.
Recent Results and Revenue Growth Drivers
Costco last reported earnings on Dec. 11, when it released fiscal Q1 results. Total revenue increased 8.3% year-over-year to $67.3 billion, driven by new warehouse openings, higher membership fees, improved productivity, and growing use of digital tools. Net income came in at $4.50 per share, representing an 11.4% increase from the prior year.
Despite these strong results, Costco’s shares saw little movement following the announcement, reflecting high expectations already built into the stock price.
Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets
Wall Street maintains a cautiously optimistic stance in this Costco earnings preview. Among 35 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating stands at “Moderate Buy.” Nineteen analysts rate Costco a “Strong Buy,” four suggest “Moderate Buy,” 11 recommend “Hold,” and one has issued a “Strong Sell.”
The average price target of $1,043.32 implies a potential upside of approximately 6.9% from current levels, indicating measured optimism ahead of the earnings release.
As the earnings date approaches, investors will be watching key metrics such as comparable sales growth, membership renewal rates, and operating margins for signs of sustained momentum. Any updates on international expansion or e-commerce initiatives could also influence market sentiment. While Costco is not typically viewed as a high-growth stock, its defensive characteristics and predictable cash flows continue to appeal to long-term investors. This Costco earnings preview ultimately highlights a company focused on steady execution, where even modest earnings surprises or guidance adjustments could meaningfully impact short-term share performance.
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