Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is making headlines again as fresh data from Counterpoint Research shows it reclaimed the top spot in China’s smartphone market in May. After months of concern around tariffs, production shifts, and AI innovation, this boost in Apple iPhone sales could mark a turning point for the tech giant.
The report noted that global iPhone sales rose 15% year-over-year in April and May, with notable rebounds in China and the U.S.—two of Apple’s most critical markets. Apple also achieved double-digit growth in Japan, India, and the Middle East, despite broader smartphone market stagnation.
AAPL Stock: Fundamentals vs. Friction
Apple, valued at around $2.96 trillion, is a leader in consumer tech, from iPhones and Macs to AirPods and Vision Pro headsets. Yet even this dominant player has faced strong headwinds. Mounting U.S.-China trade tensions and scrutiny from the Trump administration—who has threatened a 25% tariff on Apple’s products unless it brings manufacturing home—have added uncertainty.
To counter this, Apple is diversifying its supply chain by moving more production to India. While the decision might irk U.S. policymakers, it helps Apple hedge against geopolitical volatility and rising costs.
Still, AAPL stock has struggled. It’s down 9.7% over the past year and 21.9% year-to-date, currently trading nearly 25% below its 52-week high of $260.10. The company hoped to win back investor confidence during its Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) in June, but results were underwhelming.
Developer Event Fails to Spark a Rally
At WWDC, Apple introduced its new “Liquid Glass” iPhone design and unveiled iOS 26. However, investor expectations were high—especially in artificial intelligence—and Apple’s offerings left some wanting more. While Apple hinted at deeper AI integrations coming soon, it wasn’t enough to reverse the bearish sentiment.
Following the event, Apple shares declined 3.5% over five days, underscoring the market’s disappointment. For now, the rally in Apple iPhone sales may be the more compelling narrative to support a rebound in AAPL stock.
Q2 Earnings Reveal a Mixed Picture
Apple’s fiscal Q2 results (ended March 29) were solid. Revenue hit $95.36 billion, up 5% year-over-year, beating Wall Street’s $94.66 billion estimate. iPhone sales rose 2% to $46.84 billion, also topping expectations.
Mac and iPad revenue rose 7% and 15%, respectively, while services revenue climbed 12% to $26.65 billion. Still, wearables and accessories dropped 5%, and services revenue narrowly missed estimates. EPS came in at $1.65, beating the $1.63 consensus and up 8% from last year.
Despite these wins, Apple warned tariffs could add $900 million in costs next quarter. It expects Q3 revenue to grow at a “low to mid-single digit” pace—a cautious outlook that could cap upside in the near term.
Analyst Outlook: Still Positive
Despite the concerns, Wall Street remains largely bullish on AAPL. Morgan Stanley’s Erik Woodring reaffirmed an “Overweight” rating with a $235 target. Wedbush’s Dan Ives kept his “Outperform” rating and $270 target, highlighting Apple’s long-term AI strategy. BofA Securities also maintained a “Buy” with a $235 target.
According to 37 analysts, Apple holds a “Moderate Buy” consensus. Of those, 18 rate it a “Strong Buy,” with only three bearish ratings. The average price target is $230.75, implying 18% upside from current levels, with the highest target at $300—more than 50% higher.
Final Thoughts: Apple iPhone Sales Could Drive a Rebound
The recent surge in Apple iPhone sales may not be a cure-all, but it offers a much-needed tailwind for the stock. With fundamentals still strong and long-term analyst support intact, investors might consider this a compelling entry point—especially if Apple’s AI roadmap delivers in the coming quarters.
For now, Apple’s global brand power and innovation engine remain intact. The short-term challenges are real, but so is the potential for long-term gains.
Featured Image: Megapixl© Bedo
