Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is set to release its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings after the closing bell on October 30, and investors are closely watching the tech giant’s performance amid strong iPhone 17 sales. The company briefly joined the $4 trillion market cap club earlier this week, reflecting renewed optimism in Apple’s growth trajectory.
Consensus estimates project Apple’s Q4 revenue to rise 7.6% to $102 billion. This follows several quarters of modest growth, signaling a potential revival for the Cupertino-based company. After nearly double-digit revenue growth in Q2, management forecasts mid- to high-single-digit growth for Q3, driven in part by strong demand for the iPhone 17 in the U.S. and China — Apple’s two largest markets.
Earnings Per Share and Margins
While revenue growth appears robust, Apple’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow more modestly, rising 5.5% to $1.73. Apple does not provide EPS guidance, but it projected gross margins between 46% and 47% for Q3, accounting for a $1.1 billion impact from tariffs. This compares closely with the 46.5% margin reported in the previous quarter.
Investors will also monitor operational efficiency and cost management, as tariffs and global supply chain challenges continue to influence Apple’s bottom line.
Key Areas to Watch in Apple Q4 Earnings
iPhone 17 Adoption
iPhone 17 sales are expected to attract the most attention during the earnings call. Analysts are optimistic that the new model will outperform its predecessor, whose sales were considered underwhelming despite high expectations.
Apple Intelligence Expansion
Apple Intelligence, the company’s AI-driven features introduced last year, remains unavailable in China. CEO Tim Cook’s recent visit to China could signal potential rollouts or partnerships in this critical market.
Artificial Intelligence Initiatives
Apple continues to be viewed as a laggard in AI compared to peers. Investors will look for guidance on acquisitions or strategic moves to strengthen its AI capabilities, particularly in software and hardware integration.
Hardware Strategy: Glasses vs. VR Headsets
Reports suggest Apple has shifted focus from its Vision Pro mixed-reality headset to smart glasses. Analysts will watch for updates on this pivot and insights into the company’s strategy for future computing platforms.
Apple Stock Forecast Ahead of Earnings
Apple has experienced a rollercoaster relationship with analysts over the past two years, with multiple downgrades due to slowing iPhone sales and competitive pressure in China. However, several brokerages — including Baird, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) — have raised Apple’s target price after strong initial iPhone 17 sales.
Loop Capital even upgraded Apple from “Hold” to “Buy,” increasing its target from $226 to $315. Among 41 analysts tracked by Barchart, Apple currently holds a “Moderate Buy” rating, with a Street-high target of $315 — 17.1% above its close on October 28.
Should Investors Buy Before Q4 Earnings?
Apple’s valuation is elevated, with a forward P/E ratio of 33.5x, reflecting the recent rally. While revenue growth is accelerating, EPS growth has been modest, which makes the stock appear richly priced.
A post-earnings surge is unlikely unless Apple demonstrates significant progress in AI and other emerging technologies. Investors should weigh strong iPhone 17 sales and improved supply chain resilience against high valuations and the company’s slower adoption of AI.
Conclusion
Apple Q4 earnings are expected to show strong top-line growth, fueled by iPhone 17 sales and operational improvements. However, high valuation multiples and ongoing AI challenges suggest that investors should remain cautiously optimistic. The report may reinforce confidence, but sustained upside will likely depend on Apple’s ability to assert leadership in AI and new hardware categories. Long-term growth will hinge on strategic innovation, market expansion, and successful execution of emerging technology initiatives that capture both consumer and enterprise demand.
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