Intel finished 2025 looking very different than it did at the start of the year. The chipmaker has been rebuilding its strategy around artificial intelligence, reshaping its manufacturing roadmap, and tightening financial discipline after several years of uneven execution. While Intel still has plenty to prove, its fourth-quarter report offered investors a clearer picture of what this transition could look like over the next several years.
The result is an Intel stock turnaround story that is starting to feel more realistic. Intel’s shares have already climbed about 30% this year, and Wall Street expects more upside if the company continues to execute. The question for long-term investors is whether the recent rally reflects real improvement—or whether the stock has already priced in the best-case scenario.
Q4 Results Show Progress Despite Weak Revenue
Intel’s fourth-quarter revenue came in at $13.7 billion, down 4% year over year. Full-year revenue totaled $52.9 billion, roughly flat compared with the prior year. While those top-line figures don’t scream “hypergrowth,” earnings improved meaningfully. Quarterly earnings rose 15% to $0.15 per share, and for the full year Intel reported a profit of $0.42 per share compared with a loss of $0.13 in 2024.
Importantly, both revenue and earnings exceeded consensus expectations, suggesting Intel is stabilizing faster than some investors feared. Still, Intel Foundry remains a major pressure point. The segment posted a $2.5 billion operating loss in Q4, largely due to the early ramp of Intel 18A. Even so, Intel’s long-term manufacturing ambitions remain intact, with Intel 14A development reportedly on schedule and customer discussions progressing. Management expects clients to make firm supplier decisions in the second half of 2026 and early 2027—an important milestone for the broader Intel stock turnaround narrative.
Client Chips and AI PCs Remain a Key Opportunity
Intel’s Client Computing Group is another area investors are watching closely. The company launched Core Ultra Series 3, built on Intel 18A, and is positioning its future Nova Lake platform as a major step toward regaining share and profitability in AI PCs. While the competitive landscape remains intense, Intel believes its client roadmap can improve product momentum over time.
Cash flow is also improving. Even though adjusted free cash flow was negative for the full year, Intel generated $3.1 billion in the second half alone. That suggests operating leverage may be strengthening as the company works through its transition.
Intel also ended the year with $37.4 billion in cash and short-term investments and repaid $3.7 billion of debt. It boosted flexibility through asset monetization involving Mobileye, government funding, and strategic investments from partners including SoftBank (OTC:SFBQF) and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). Those moves matter because Intel’s turnaround requires heavy capital spending, and a strong balance sheet helps reduce risk.
Demand Is Strong, But Intel Can’t Meet It Yet
One of the most interesting takeaways from Q4 is that Intel’s biggest challenge may actually be a “good” problem: it can’t make enough chips to meet customer demand. Supply constraints are limiting how much product reaches customers, pressuring margins and keeping revenue below potential.
However, in the context of an Intel stock turnaround, strong demand can be a bullish signal. Management repeatedly emphasized that Q4 would have been stronger without supply bottlenecks. Demand appeared solid across client, data center, AI infrastructure, networking, and custom silicon, with hyperscalers signaling increased appetite.
Instead of aggressively spending to chase short-term growth, Intel is focusing on stabilizing yields and scaling wafer starts carefully across current nodes. The company is also showing restraint by avoiding major 14A capacity buildouts until customers commit to volume. That discipline could help prevent costly overbuilds that have hurt profitability in the past.
For long-term investors, this combination—high demand, limited supply, and tighter capital allocation—could set the stage for better margins and more predictable earnings if execution continues to improve.
Wall Street Outlook: Is (NASDAQ:INTC) a Buy?
Analysts expect Intel’s earnings to rise 16% in 2026, followed by a 104% jump in 2027, implying a sharper recovery once near-term pressures ease. Recently, Tigress Financial raised its price target on (NASDAQ:INTC) to $66 from $52, highlighting AI data center tailwinds and an AI PC refresh cycle as potential multi-year catalysts.
Even so, Wall Street remains cautious overall. Intel holds a consensus “Hold” rating, with a wide mix of bullish and bearish opinions across analysts. The average target price sits below current levels, but the Street-high estimate of $66 suggests meaningful upside if Intel’s turnaround delivers.
For investors considering the stock today, the key is simple: Intel stock turnaround momentum is building, but the company still needs to prove it can scale supply, improve margins, and turn foundry ambitions into profitable growth.
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