Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) is facing a steep decline in its COVID-19 vaccine revenue as public demand cools and new U.S. health guidelines narrow recommendations for who should receive the shots. The pharmaceutical giant reported that sales of its Comirnaty vaccine fell 25% in the latest quarter, dropping to $870 million from $1.16 billion a year ago.
The company blamed two key factors: delayed federal approval of updated boosters and confusion stemming from shifting public health guidance. The sluggish start to the fall vaccination season underscores a broader challenge for Pfizer — maintaining momentum for its COVID-19 franchise as the pandemic moves into its fifth year.
Narrower U.S. Guidance Dampens Demand
A major blow to Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine sales came after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) changed its recommendations. Unlike previous years, when the CDC urged all Americans aged six months and older to get annual boosters, the agency now leaves the decision to patients and doctors.
The new approach aligns with recommendations from advisers appointed by U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has questioned the safety and necessity of COVID-19 vaccines for certain groups. Under this updated guidance, the shots are no longer routinely recommended for healthy children or pregnant women.
Public health experts warn that this shift could deepen vaccine hesitancy. “Vaccination rates have already been suboptimal,” said Dr. Amesh Adalja of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “That’s only going to fall off more this season.”
Public Confusion Adds to Pfizer’s Challenges
The change in guidance has led to widespread confusion among patients and pharmacies alike. Many Americans were unsure whether they still qualified for the updated boosters, and some drugstores began requiring prescriptions or proof of medical risk.
Even insurance coverage was briefly in question. However, America’s Health Insurance Plans, a major industry association, has since clarified that its members will continue covering the shots.
CVS Health (NYSE:CVS) confirmed earlier this month that its pharmacies will not require prescriptions for COVID-19 vaccinations. Still, independent pharmacists report that misinformation and mixed messages have taken a toll.
“There’s just so many messages out there, people don’t know who to believe,” said Theresa Tolle, who runs Bay Street Pharmacy in Sebastian, Florida. “I’ve had people tell me they’re afraid of the vaccine — even though they’ve had it several times before.”
Moderna Faces Similar Decline
Pfizer isn’t the only company hit by waning vaccine demand. Analysts expect Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA), which makes the rival Spikevax shot, to report a roughly 50% decline in sales for the third quarter. Moderna will release its results later this week, and early projections from FactSet suggest that falling demand across all age groups will continue into next year.
This trend signals a broader retreat from pandemic-era vaccine profits. Both Pfizer and Moderna were among the biggest beneficiaries of global vaccination campaigns in 2021 and 2022. But as immunity levels rise and public urgency fades, both companies are struggling to adapt to a post-pandemic market.
What’s Next for Pfizer
Despite falling vaccine revenue, Pfizer remains one of the world’s largest pharmaceutical companies with a diverse product pipeline. The company has been shifting its focus toward new drug launches and cost-cutting efforts to offset weaker COVID-related income.
Pfizer executives have said they expect Comirnaty to remain a seasonal product — similar to the flu shot — though at lower volumes. The company hopes that increased protection against emerging variants could help stabilize sales in 2026 and beyond.
Still, analysts warn that continued misinformation, vaccine fatigue, and inconsistent public health messaging could keep demand subdued for years. Unless the government restores broader guidance, Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine sales may never return to their early-pandemic highs.
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