Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) is set to release its Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings on May 15, and investor attention is laser-focused on the Walmart earnings forecast. Despite recent challenges—including leap year distortions and shifting holiday sales—analysts remain optimistic. So far in 2025, WMT stock has performed well, and the upcoming report could reinforce its status as a stable, long-term retail investment.
What’s Driving the Walmart Earnings Forecast?
The Walmart earnings forecast points to a 3–4% increase in consolidated net sales, despite an anticipated 1% sales drag due to the leap year effect and the timing of Easter. These factors are particularly significant for Walmart’s Walmex division in Mexico, which saw a shift in seasonal buying into Q2.
Still, Walmart’s scale, pricing strategy, and operational efficiency help buffer against these timing issues. Its consistent performance—beating earnings expectations for four consecutive quarters—builds confidence. Last quarter, Walmart beat estimates by 1.54%, and for Q1, the company has guided earnings per share (EPS) between $0.57 and $0.58. The consensus estimate from analysts is in line at $0.57, slightly down from $0.60 a year ago.
Strength in E-Commerce and Digital Expansion
One of the most promising elements of the Walmart earnings forecast is the continued strength in digital operations. Walmart’s U.S. e-commerce business has not only grown in size but also improved in profitability. Fast delivery, a broader online assortment, and strategic fulfillment through Walmart Fulfillment Services are fueling this success.
In fact, global advertising revenue rose by 27% year-over-year, reaching $4.4 billion. The U.S. Marketplace saw even more impressive 37% growth, with nearly 45% of marketplace orders fulfilled through Walmart’s internal system. These high-margin digital revenue streams are helping Walmart grow its bottom line faster than its top line.
Memberships Drive Recurring Revenue
Another highlight of the Walmart earnings forecast is growth in membership income. Sam’s Club in the U.S. has continued expanding its member base, especially among high-value Plus members. Internationally, Sam’s Club China is gaining traction with new club openings. Walmart+ also remains a key contributor to membership revenue, strengthening the company’s recurring income profile.
Short-Term Pressures: Leap Year, Vizio, and Operating Margins
Despite these positives, investors should remain aware of short-term headwinds in the Walmart earnings forecast. The acquisition of Vizio may initially drag on operating income. Additionally, the leap year and holiday timing issues are likely to skew quarterly comparisons.
Even so, the company’s expansion into higher-margin segments—such as advertising, memberships, and third-party marketplace services—is expected to gradually lift operating margins. These businesses not only offset near-term disruptions but also provide a runway for sustainable, profitable growth.
Analyst Sentiment on WMT Stock
Ahead of Walmart’s Q1 report, Wall Street remains bullish on the company. Most analysts continue to rate WMT stock as a “Strong Buy,” citing the company’s market share gains, digital expansion, and stable cash flows. The Walmart earnings forecast reflects a balanced mix of caution for Q1 and optimism for the rest of the fiscal year.
Conclusion: Is Walmart Stock a Buy Before Earnings?
In summary, the Walmart earnings forecast suggests some temporary softness but highlights strong long-term fundamentals. The retail giant’s ability to execute across physical stores, digital platforms, and new verticals like advertising and membership makes it an attractive investment.
For those looking to buy into a defensive yet growth-oriented stock, Walmart (NYSE:WMT) offers a compelling case. While Q1 might not deliver fireworks, the company’s steady transformation into a digital-first retail ecosystem supports continued upside.
Investors may want to consider WMT stock ahead of earnings, as positive surprises and resilient performance often lead to renewed bullish momentum.
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