Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) remains one of the most closely watched names in global retail, and for good reason. With a market cap near $1 trillion, the company has proven it can defend market share in uncertain economic conditions while still investing aggressively in growth. But what does the latest data suggest about the Walmart stock outlook—and is Wall Street leaning bullish or bearish right now?
Over the last year, Walmart has rewarded shareholders with steady gains, outperforming the broader market and many peers. Yet with the stock already up significantly, investors are asking a key question: is there still room to run, or is the market pricing in too much optimism?
Walmart Stock Outlook vs. the Broader Market
The Walmart stock outlook has been supported by strong relative performance. Over the past 52 weeks, Walmart shares have climbed roughly 20%, beating the S&P 500 Index ($SPX), which gained about 16% during the same period. On a year-to-date basis, Walmart has also remained ahead of the benchmark, showing resilience even as market leadership rotates between sectors.
That kind of outperformance matters because Walmart is not a high-growth tech name—it’s a consumer staples giant. When a defensive stock beats the market, it often signals investors are rewarding stability, predictable earnings, and consistent execution.
Walmart has also outpaced the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLP), a popular ETF used to track major consumer staples companies. This suggests Walmart isn’t just riding sector momentum—it’s outperforming many of its category peers as well.
Q3 Results Strengthen the Walmart Stock Outlook
The biggest recent catalyst behind the improving Walmart stock outlook was the company’s strong fiscal Q3 performance. Walmart reported revenue growth of 5.8%, reaching $179.5 billion, while adjusted earnings per share rose 6.9% to $0.62. Those numbers reinforced the idea that Walmart can grow even in a competitive retail environment.
Investors reacted especially well to the company’s accelerating digital performance. Walmart’s global e-commerce sales jumped 27%, which highlights the company’s continued progress as an omnichannel leader rather than just a brick-and-mortar retailer.
Another standout was advertising revenue, which surged 53%. Walmart’s advertising business has become an increasingly important driver because it typically comes with higher margins than traditional retail sales. When a retailer can expand advertising and marketplace revenue, it often creates a “flywheel” effect: more sellers lead to more customers, which leads to more ad spending.
E-Commerce, Margins, and Guidance Upgrades
A major reason analysts remain optimistic about the Walmart stock outlook is that growth isn’t coming at the expense of profitability. Walmart also reported margin improvement, a key detail for long-term investors.
For many retailers, strong sales growth can sometimes mask weaker margins due to heavy discounting or rising costs. Walmart’s results, however, suggested that its scale, supply chain advantages, and digital expansion are helping it protect profitability while continuing to grow.
Even more importantly, Walmart raised its fiscal 2026 guidance. The company now expects net sales growth of 4.8% to 5.1% and adjusted EPS between $2.58 and $2.63. When management raises guidance, Wall Street tends to view it as a confidence signal—especially for a company known for cautious forecasting.
That guidance bump is one reason sentiment has remained firm, even after the stock’s strong run.
What Analysts Expect Next for Walmart (NYSE:WMT)
Looking ahead, analysts expect Walmart’s adjusted EPS to grow about 4.8% year-over-year to $2.63 for the fiscal year ending January 2026. That may not sound explosive, but steady mid-single-digit earnings growth from a mega-cap retailer can still be powerful—especially when combined with strong cash flow and defensive characteristics.
Walmart’s earnings surprise record is mixed, though mostly positive. The company has beaten consensus expectations in three of the last four quarters, with one miss in that span. Overall, Walmart has demonstrated that it can deliver consistent results, but investors should remember that even best-in-class operators can face occasional headwinds from consumer spending shifts, wage costs, or pricing pressure.
Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish on the Walmart Stock Outlook?
Wall Street sentiment remains strongly positive. Among roughly 38 analysts covering Walmart, the consensus rating is “Strong Buy,” driven by a large majority of bullish ratings and only a small number of neutral or bearish calls.
However, one detail worth noting is that the analyst mix has become slightly less bullish than it was a few months ago. That doesn’t necessarily mean sentiment has turned negative—it may simply reflect the stock’s higher valuation after strong performance. When a stock rises quickly, some analysts shift from “strong buy” to “hold” to reflect more limited short-term upside.
Even so, several firms continue to back the stock. Tigress Financial recently raised its price target to $135 while maintaining a “Buy” rating. The average analyst price target sits around $123.86, implying modest upside from current levels, while the high-end target near $136 suggests a stronger potential gain.
Final Take: Walmart Stock Outlook Remains Positive
Overall, the Walmart stock outlook appears bullish, supported by market-beating performance, strong earnings execution, fast-growing e-commerce sales, and expanding high-margin advertising revenue. The company’s guidance increase adds another layer of confidence, showing management believes momentum can continue.
That said, with Walmart trading closer to many analysts’ price targets, investors may see more gradual gains from here rather than a straight-line rally. For long-term holders seeking stability, defensive strength, and steady growth, Walmart (NYSE:WMT) still looks well-positioned.
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