The question dominating investor conversations today is whether PBNA share gains can last through 2025 as PepsiCo, Inc. (NASDAQ:PEP) leans heavily on two fast-growing beverage platforms: Pepsi Zero Sugar and the expanding Mountain Dew flavor portfolio. PepsiCo Beverages North America (“PBNA”) has been gaining meaningful momentum, powered by consumer demand for bold flavors, functional offerings and low- or zero-sugar options. These trends place PBNA in a strong competitive position—yet they also raise questions about sustainability in a highly promotional marketplace.
Pepsi Zero Sugar stands at the center of PBNA share gains, delivering double-digit net revenue growth in the latest quarter. The company’s revamped marketing strategy, including the “Food Deserves Pepsi” campaign and the Pepsi Zero Sugar Taste Challenge, has increased trial among both loyal Pepsi fans and health-conscious consumers seeking reduced-sugar alternatives. With zero-sugar becoming one of the fastest-growing segments in carbonated soft drinks, PBNA’s execution in this space is a major competitive advantage.
Zero Sugar Momentum Supports PBNA Share Gains
Pepsi Zero Sugar isn’t just outperforming in sales—it’s helping reshape PBNA’s broader portfolio. The company’s zero-sugar strategy cuts across Pepsi, Mountain Dew and multiple other brands, giving PBNA a scalable foundation for growth. As more shoppers shift toward healthier or lower-calorie options, the economics of zero-sugar beverages—often carrying stronger margins—also benefit PepsiCo’s bottom line.
If consumer demand continues accelerating, Pepsi Zero Sugar could remain a powerful engine behind PBNA share gains throughout 2025, supported by new formulations, expanded distribution and heavier marketing pressure.
Mountain Dew’s Flavor Strategy Extends PBNA Share Gains
While Pepsi Zero Sugar brings in health-focused switchers, Mountain Dew is capturing younger and flavor-seeking shoppers. PBNA has doubled down on its “flavor engine,” introducing varieties such as HoneyDEW, Dragon Fruit and Baja Cabo Citrus. The ongoing success of Baja Blast—now a billion-dollar brand—has strengthened the Mountain Dew franchise and deepened consumer engagement.
These innovations are helping PBNA capture incremental shelf space, win new buyers and compete more effectively against category rivals. If Mountain Dew’s momentum continues, it will meaningfully support PBNA share gains, particularly in convenience retail and foodservice channels.
Competition: How KO and KDP Affect PBNA Share Gains
The beverage landscape is intensely competitive, and PBNA share gains cannot be viewed in isolation. Two major competitors—The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO) and Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (NASDAQ:KDP)—are responding with their own innovation-driven strategies.
Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO)
Coca-Cola continues to leverage its global scale and brand power to maintain strong market presence. KO is benefiting from flagship brands, a wider zero-sugar assortment and premium extensions in energy and hydration. With healthy margin expansion and a disciplined pricing strategy, Coca-Cola remains a formidable competitor. Its global footprint fuels growth but introduces currency risk, adding complexity to earnings visibility.
Keurig Dr Pepper (NASDAQ:KDP)
KDP operates with a different mix but faces similar cost challenges. Productivity initiatives, cost efficiencies and innovation in cold beverages and the Keurig coffee ecosystem support stable growth. While elevated input costs continue to pressure margins, strategic pricing actions and targeted investments are helping KDP hold its ground. Together, KO and KDP’s moves highlight how competitive the landscape remains—even as PBNA share gains continue.
Valuation: What PBNA Share Gains Mean for Investors
From an investment perspective, PepsiCo shares have risen 1.3% over the past three months, lagging the beverage industry’s 4.5%. Despite this modest performance, PEP’s valuation remains reasonable. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 16.97x, slightly below the industry average of 18.01x. This discount may reflect tempered near-term earnings expectations: the Zacks Consensus Estimate forecasts a modest 0.7% decline in 2025 earnings before rebounding with 5.9% growth in 2026.
Notably, earnings estimates for both years have remained stable over the past week, suggesting analysts see PBNA share gains—and PepsiCo’s broader beverage strategy—as durable despite macro pressures.
Outlook: Can PBNA Share Gains Continue?
The outlook for PBNA share gains remains favorable but not guaranteed. Sustaining momentum will depend on:
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Continued double-digit growth from Pepsi Zero Sugar
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Ongoing flavor innovation within the Mountain Dew portfolio
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Competitive agility against KO and KDP
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Consistent execution in marketing, distribution and pricing
If PepsiCo can maintain its innovation cycle and capitalize on the surging demand for zero-sugar and flavor-forward beverages, PBNA is well positioned not only to defend but potentially expand its share gains through 2025.
Featured Image: Unsplash
